《大行》匯豐:競爭加劇或限制農夫山泉(09633.HK)盈利空間 評級降至「持有」升目標價至47.4元
匯豐環球研究報告指出,預計農夫山泉(09633.HK)2025年上半年表現穩健,但競爭加劇可能限制盈利上行空間。匯豐將該股評級從「買入」降至「持有」,並將加權平均資本成本降至8%,以及將現金流量折現法向前滾動一年,將目標價上調21.2%,從39.1港元上調至47.4港元,相當於2025年、2026年市盈率分別為34.8倍、30.8倍,也意味著較上周五收市價約有2%的上行空間。現價相當於2025年預估市盈率33.2倍,匯豐認為,若無進一步的市場共識預測上調,農夫山泉重新評級階段可能已結束。
匯豐預期農夫山泉今年上半年將實現穩健業績,其瓶裝水業務從2024年的低基數持續復甦,預計上半年收入按年增長14%(瓶裝水:11%;飲料:16%),淨利潤按年增長15%至71.77億元人民幣。此預期業績與匯豐當前的2025年盈利預測一致,亦符合市場共識。
不過匯豐指出,今年用於生產飲品瓶的PET成本下降,商家以更大力度的促銷和市場供應增加,加劇行業競爭。另一方面,即飲(RTD)需求持續疲軟,可能因2025年第二季度起受到補貼較多的外送市場的侵蝕。
匯豐認為,在當前市場環境下,上述情況不可避免地限制了盈利的上行空間,遂對農夫山泉盈利預測作出微調,預期該公司2025年淨利潤按年增長15%至139.43億元,銷售額增長15.4%,2025至2027年淨利潤及收入的年均複合增長率分別為12.6%及12.2%,符合市場共識。
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