《大行》美銀證券:中石化(00386.HK)上半年經營數據遜預期 目標價4.8元
美銀證券研究報告指,中石化(00386.HK)上半年經營數據遜預期,其勘探與生產(E&P)業務符合預期,油氣產量按年升2%,達全年目標的50%,但國內原油產量僅按年微增0.2%,低於行業平均的1.3%,將拖累稅後淨利潤(NAPT)。煉油業務方面,加工量顯著下降5.3%,而行業平均為增長1.6%,主要因核心煉油總利潤(GRM)低迷、需求疲弱及產能檢修。銷售方面,銷量按年跌3.4%,優於行業平均跌幅5.8%,並從同行中搶佔市場份額;而化工方面,乙烯產量按年升16.4%,增速高於行業平均10.9%。
該行維持原油市場中性觀點,預測今年下半年油價每桶64美元。而近期「反內捲」政策對油氣板塊支持有限。基於次季營運低於預期,料集團難以達成全年煉化及銷售目標。
另外,發改委日前公布新政策,強化節能與碳排放審批監管。該行認為中石化或能從中受惠,因集團已投資建設該規劃中主要的新化工產能,但短期影響有限;考慮估值不高及預測今年股息率可觀,重申「買入」評級,H股目標價4.8元,A股目標價(600028.SH)6.6元人民幣。
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