《大行》高盛料明年樓價及零售租金升5%及2% 升地產股目標價
高盛研究報告指,自3月中旬起,本港樓價已反彈1%,零售銷售額亦於5月實現按年2%增長。雖然寫字樓空置率仍維持在13至14%的高位,但近期股市回暖及資本市場活動重啓,已帶動需求回升。上述基本面改善,加上美元走弱及利率下行,推動香港地產及綜合企業股份今年至今錄得5至45%升幅。
該行認爲,雖然行業估值仍未算高,但後續上行空間將取決於價格及租金復甦趨勢。隨着住宅及零售市場今年回穩,該行預計中環區寫字樓租金將於明年止跌,因新增供應到時應大致完成消化。不過在經濟增長相對緩慢下,樓價與租金反彈幅度預期難及沙士及金融危機後的10至20%水平。整體而言,該行料2026年樓價按年升5%,零售租金升2%,寫字樓租金持平;資產淨值有望重拾增長。
該行又指,留意到部分企業如恆地(00012.HK)、港鐵(00066.HK)及太地(01972.HK),近期趁市場情緒改善,通過發債等方式融資;除港鐵外,大多能夠以持平或更低利率完成發行。該行料其覆蓋的企業上半年盈利跌幅將收窄或實現扭虧。而近年備受投資者關注的股息持續性問題,應已有所緩解。
股份方面,該行將港鐵評級由「買入」降至「中性」,目標價由31.6元降至31.3元。維持希慎(00014.HK)「中性」評級,目標價由15.2元升至16.8元;維持九龍倉集團(00004.HK)「沽售」評級,目標價由20元升至21元。至於恆隆地產(00101.HK)、太地、九龍倉置業(01997.HK)及領展(00823.HK),均維持「買入」評級,目標價分別升至9.3元、24.1元、29.7元及53.1元。
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