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《大行》高盛升中國中免(01880.HK)目標價至51.3元 靜待海南離島免稅政策細則
高盛發表研究報告,中國中免(01880.HK)上週五(25日)盤後發佈半年度業績快報,上半年淨利潤按年下降20%至26億元人民幣,據此推算第二季單季淨利潤爲6.62億元人民幣,按年下降32%,較第一季的19億元顯着下滑,低於該行及市場預期,主要受線上及機場渠道持續疲弱拖累(高盛估算該渠道按年下滑13%,儘管國際航空客流按年恢復20%或按季增長5%至10%)。 高盛表示,正如該行在2023年5月關於海南全島免稅政策的深度分析中所指出,自由貿易港政策的全面實施雖可能通過吸引更多消費者擴大市場規模,但品牌商在海南自建門店的潛在計劃將使公司面臨更直接的競爭。某程度上,公司已爲此轉型,從單純向品牌採購商品的免稅營運商逐步轉向提供零售空間的平臺營運商。 考慮到線上渠道等銷售動能減弱,該行將中國中免2025至2027年每股盈利預測下調12%至13%。基於估值基準轉換至2026年(原爲2025年),維持中國中免(601888.SH)A股目標價59元人民幣,並將H股目標價由46.2港元上調至51.3港元(對應A股/H股折價收窄至20%,原爲30%),與歷史均值及同業水平趨同。雖然短期內可能迎來新一輪盈利預測下修,但部分投資者或已開始關注海南免稅銷售額即將迎來的按年轉正拐點。當前估值仍處高位,對應2025年及2026年預測市盈率分別爲34倍及29倍,維持「中性」評級。
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