《大行》摩通升中石化(00386.HK)目標價至4元 評級「中性」
摩根大通發表報告指,中石化(00386.HK)公布上半年營運數據,上游產量符合預期,但下游精煉/生產/銷售量僅相當於2025年指引的46%至49%。中石化將於8月24日公布上半年業績,並於8月25日舉行管理電話會議。該行預測第二季純利為72億人民幣,每股派息9分人民幣。
該行指,由於預期中石化2025財政年度淨利潤將連續第五年下滑,因此對中石化維持「中性」評級,目標價由3.6元升至4元,並重申中石油(00857.HK)是石油股首選。
摩通小幅下調中石化2025年每股盈利預測4%,以反映銷量預測被下調,但上調2026至2027財年每股盈測各6%和3%,以反映AP LNG合約重新談判及化學品業務利潤率略有改善的預期。
該行建議關注中石化在業績後對「十五五」增長策略的論述;減少化工虧損的解決方案及「反內捲」的影響;參與寧德時代H股IPO的影響;以及AP LNG合約重新談判對盈利影響的論述。
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