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《大行》中金:農夫山泉(09633.HK)動銷勢頭強勁 目標價升至54元
中金髮表報告指出,預計農夫山泉(09633.HK)今年上半年收入按年增長18%,利潤按年增長20%,收入增長高於市場預期,主要由於茶飲及果汁表現勝預期,利潤增長基本符合預期。中金也預計果汁上半年按年增長超20%,主要由水溶C100帶動,100%果汁亦表現強勁;功能飲料及其他產品如咖啡、蘇打水上半年按年增長雙位數,整體看公司在去年輿論影響後,今年通過產品力鞏固、渠道力強化及品牌行銷深入展現出較強韌性,市場份額提升。 該行指出,受益原材料價格下行利潤率持續提升,利潤表現略好於收入。受益於PET(飲品包裝用原材料)價格下行及產品結構持續提升,預計今年上半年公司毛利率持續提升,費用率端預計銷售費用率保持平穩微跌,主要由於飲料收入佔比提升帶動運輸費率下降,A&P(廣告和促銷)費用或略有提升,管理費用率隨人員激勵增加有所提升,但中金預計整體經營利潤率(OPM)呈現提升態勢。考慮公司上半年雲南茶廠捐贈等額外開支增加,中金預計整體公司淨利率微增,預計淨利潤按年增長20%。 中金續指,考慮公司在今年下半年基數走低,疊加輿論事件帶來的潛在消費者回流,及公司終端動銷勢頭強勁,認爲公司下半年收入增速有望改善。中金判斷去年輿論影響或逐步消退。 該行又預計,無糖茶全年有望按年增長20%,東方樹葉通過消費者開蓋贏獎活動提升復購,及新口味新規格推出競爭力持續夯實,果汁、功能飲料亦有持續亮點。上半年公司推出碳酸新品冰茶,中金預計較此前汽茶等產品更好,建議關注其下半年表現。公司在市場競爭加劇背景下產品力、渠道力夯實,長期競爭力穩固。 考慮公司動銷勢頭強勁,中金分別上調2025年及2026年盈利預測5%、7%至147億、168億元,當前對應32倍、28倍2025和2026年市盈率;考慮行業估值上行,上調目標價35%至54港元,分別對應38倍、33倍2025、2026年市盈率和20%空間,維持「跑贏行業」評級。
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