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《大行》美銀證券升紫金(02899.HK)目標價至26元 重申「買入」評級
阿思達克 07-28 11:29
美銀證券發表報告指,紫金礦業(02899.HK)管理層基本預測今年銅和黃金成本上升。然而,公司對於從高銅和高黃金價格中獲得更好利潤率仍然充滿信心。就Kakula項目停產,公司預計今年的銅產量將介乎1.07萬至1.08萬噸之間,大致與去年的水平相符,又對Kamoa-Kakula的長期潛力持樂觀態度。 該行表示,美國總統特朗普宣布對進口銅徵收50%的關稅後,銅價稍微回落,但隨後繼續上漲,年初至今的平均銅價為每噸9,469美元,按年增長4%。該行預計,今年的銅價為每噸9,557美元,按年增長4%,意味著下半年的銅價為每噸9,634美元,較上半年增長2%。該行預計,由於中國的電網投資和礦山供應持續緊張,加上Kakula項目停產、印尼自由港冶煉廠火災及智利主要作業的礦石品位下降,料下半年需求將保持強勁。 黃金方面,報告提到,年初至今的金價為每安士3,111美元,按年增長39%。該行表示,受到美國預算赤字上升、利率波動加大及美元走弱所推動,預計今年的金價為每安士3,356美元,按年增長41%,意味著下半年金價為每安士3,625美元,較上半年增長17%。 該行將紫金礦業今年的淨利預測下調2%,惟將2026和2027年的預測上調1%和5%。因此,該行將公司H受目標價由23元上調至26元,而A股則由23元人民幣升至26元人民幣,重申「買入」評級。
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