《大行》美銀證券微降康師傅(00322.HK)目標價至13.9元 續籲買入
美銀證券研究報告引述渠道消息指,康師傅(00322.HK)上半年飲品及即食麪銷售額分別有中單位數及低單位數下跌。飲品業務方面,該行料碳酸飲品以外的產品銷售跌幅,將由次季中旬的中單位數擴大至近月的高單位數。除了因先前加價導致的市場份額流失外,內地外賣戰推動中低價位手搖茶飲銷售,對定位相近的康師傅即飲飲品造成衝擊,加上無糖茶的市場份額攀升,侵蝕原本爲康師傅優勢領域的含糖茶市場份額。相較於農夫山泉(09633.HK)無糖茶產品佔比逾60%,康師傅的無糖茶產品佔比僅有中單位數。
即食麪業務方面,雖然上半年銷售有所下跌,但憑藉品牌優勢、渠道實力以及在特別渠道中推出高性價比的新品,近期市佔率已逐步回穩。若按月跌幅持續收窄,不排除下半年可恢復持平或微幅增長。
該行分別下調2025及26年銷售預測2%及3%,但基於利潤率表現較好,上調2025年每股盈利預測4%,且不排除資產處置可帶來一次性收益。同時,考慮到飲料銷售隱憂,下調2026年每股盈利預測3%,目標價相應調降3%由14.3元降至13.9元。不過,康師傅具備穩定股東回報紀錄,在100%派息率下提供逾6%收益率;重申「買入」評級。
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