《大行》摩通:渣打(02888.HK)次季增長或較匯控(00005.HK)強韌 同予「增持」評級
摩根大通發表研究報告指,匯控(00005.HK)與渣打(02888.HK)都將於7月底公布第二季業績,目前預測由於渣打的淨利息收入佔比較匯控低,只有約52%,對比匯控為約60%,相信受到利率下行的衝擊較小,加上香港商業地產風險敞口也較少,資產質量壓力相對較輕,因此預期渣打的增長表現會較強韌,同予「增持」評級。
摩通預測匯控第二季淨利息收入將按季下跌1%至105億美元,淨息差輕微下降,財富管理收入預料按年增長16%,外匯業務表現強勁,預期該行信貸虧損撥備率將由首季的37個基點提升至50個基點,預期投資者會較關注其成本節省進度與對香港地產風險的應對方法。
至於渣打,摩通預計其次季淨利息收入將按季跌2%至27億美元,淨息差降至205基點,但貸款增長受益於全球貿易提早出貨效應所推動,非利息收入預料按年增長13%(但因季節性而按季減少9%),財富管理收入預期也保持按年22%的增長(首季26%),期待管理層對全年淨利息收入更新指引。
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