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《大行》瑞銀料下半年海南免稅銷售或恢復正增長 購物人次跌幅收窄
瑞銀研究報告指,海南自由貿易港封關將於今年12月18日正式啓動,當中離島免稅政策維持不變,每人每年免稅購物額度維持10萬元人民幣,允許海南居民購買特定免稅商品,或以日用消費品爲主。細節尚未公佈。另外,適用於零關稅政策的商品將由1,900項擴大至6,600項,封關後各國人員進出海南亦不設限。 該行認爲,封關短期對免稅公司業績影響有限,因離島免稅額度未有調整。但目前免稅需求持續疲弱,6月海南免稅銷售額按年下滑5%,跌幅較5月的1%擴大,主要受客戶數量按年減少26%,及旅客購物轉化率持續下降拖累。至於長期而言,封關或能促進商務與休閒旅客人流增長,利好海南免稅市場。後續潛在催化劑包括提高離島免稅購物額度、優化海南免稅品提貨政策及落實本島居民免稅購物細則。 考慮到去年下半年的低基數、高淨值人羣消費力具韌性,以及部分代購回流,該行料今年下半年海南免稅銷售額有望恢復按年增長,購物人次或維持負增長,但按年跌幅有望收窄至約15%,又料人均免稅消費額按年跌8%至10%。
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