《大行》匯豐料蒙牛(02319.HK)上半年復甦遜預期 降目標價至21.5元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 07-24 11:18
匯豐環球研究報告指出，因原奶價格持續處於下跌週期，預計蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)今年上半年復甦低於預期，料上半年淨利潤按年下降16.3%，銷售額下降5%。匯豐認爲，蒙牛盈利轉折點可能延遲至2026年，維持2026及2027年淨利潤預測基本不變，維持「買入」評級，但由於加權平均資本成本降低及盈利預測下調，目標價由23.6元下調8.9%至21.5元，相當於2026年預測市盈率13.4倍，股息收益率4.1%。
在需求疲弱及受原奶價格下跌影響下，匯豐預計蒙牛今年上半年收入按年下降5%，淨利潤按年下降16.3%至20.47億元人民幣。儘管核心營業利潤率因更低的原奶成本而按年擴大，令今年上半年核心營業利潤按年持平。對整個2025年，匯豐相信蒙牛仍能達成營業利潤率按年持平的目標，但將2025年收入預測下調5.7%，現預計收入按年下降3.3%。匯豐同時下調蒙牛今年淨利潤預測16.1%，比市場一致預期低21.4%。
匯豐指出，蒙牛管理層預期原奶價格下跌週期最早於今年第三季度轉折。鑑於液態奶需求低於預期，匯豐認爲原奶週期轉折點可能進一步延後至2026年。一旦轉折，匯豐相信蒙牛盈利將受益於液態奶市場良性競爭環境及原奶蒸發損失的減少。因此，匯豐對蒙牛2026及2027年的盈利預測未作重大調整。
匯豐預計，蒙牛淨利息邊際（NIM）將自2025年的4.7%，分別回升至2026年和2027年的6.5%及6.9%。2025至2027年，核心營業利潤年均複合增長率增長5%，營收年均複合增長率2%（大致不變）。匯豐將2026年淨利潤預測上調0.2%，2027年則下調1.8%，原因是收入預測分別降低6%和7%，比市場一致預期低2%和1.6%。
匯豐又預計，基於52%的派息比率，蒙牛今年股息至少將實現低個位數按年增長。加上2024年8月宣佈的剩餘20億元回購計劃，該股以現時股價計算，收益率達5%至6%。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
More Content
CS Hotline: +852 3018 4526
Trading days: 24 hours | Non-trading days: 9:00-18:00
