《大行》大摩升中國宏橋(01378.HK)目標價至24.8元 重申「增持」評級
摩根士丹利研究報告指出,中國宏橋(01378.HK)憑藉其穩健的鋁價、與同行相比的成本競爭力、一體化的業務鏈及位於非洲幾內亞鐵礦石項目的盈利貢獻,可支持該股重新評級,重申對該股「增持」評級,目標價從18.5元升至24.8元,仍視該公司為行業首選。
大摩表示,其全球商品團隊認為,隨著年底臨近,鋁價有上行空間,因中國需求增加導致供需平衡傾向短缺。中國政府產能限制、美國進口增加、美元走弱且庫存處於低位料帶來進一步支持。較高的鋁價應有助於提升冶煉廠的利潤率,為宏橋帶來穩固的盈利。
大摩又指出,受益於今年以來動力煤價格顯著下降,及中國雲南省電價下調(中國宏橋將鋁生產產能轉移至該省),生產成本得以降低;此外,其幾內亞子公司SMB提供穩定的鋁土礦供應,提供更低的成本并在原材料價格波動中確保盈利穩定性,兩者優勢為公司提供盈利穩定性。
大摩又認為,中國宏橋股息支付比率從2018年的32%增至2024年的約63%,意味著股息收益率達8%至9%,優於同行平均4%,吸引了投資者。該公司還回購並註銷股份,以進一步提升股東回報。而非洲幾內亞的西芒杜(Simandou)鐵礦項目則帶來額外利潤。
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