《大行》星展銀行升九龍倉置業(01997.HK)目標價至25.2元 維持「持有」評級
星展銀行研究報告指出,九龍倉置業(01997.HK)兩大標誌性購物地標「海港城」和「時代廣場」,客流量雖然增加,但仍面臨壓力(租戶銷售持續疲弱,短期內拖累商場的營業額租金);雖然出租率保持穩定,但關稅不確定性影響零售租賃情緒,影響零售組合的租金續約前景。星展銀行維持對該股「持有」評級,目標價從22.11元升至25.2元,基於對2026年6月每股資產淨值(NAV)估計折讓55%。
星展銀行表示,海港城及時代廣場的辦公室出租率穩定在約90%。海港城錄得保險公司的內部擴張需求,而時代廣場則錄得科技公司的穩健需求。兩大物業的辦公室現租金分別爲每平方尺30元至60元及30元至50元,續約租金持續爲負,幅度超過10%。在中環,會德豐大廈的出租率改善至約90%,而卡佛大廈的出租率約爲95%。
酒店方面,星展銀行指出,儘管遊客增加帶動酒店入住率提高,但因市場競爭激烈及遊客消費疲弱,酒店客房價格持續下跌。
星展銀行指出,由於今年5月,一個月HIBOR從4月底的約4%降至約0.5%,目前回升至約1%,該行分別上調2025及2026財年盈利預測0.7%及1.6%,部分反映對較低利率的假設。星展銀行表示,因該公司80%債務爲浮動利率基準,低利率環境將有利於九龍倉置業的盈利前景。該行分析顯示,HIBOR每下降100個基點,九龍倉置業2025財年及2026財年的盈利將分別提高3.9%及3.7%。
星展銀行預計,因續約負增長繼續影響辦公室租金收入,加上零售組合的營業額租金下降,預測2025年上半年租金收入將按年下降約6%。但由於平均HIBOR下降令利息成本降低,有助抵銷部分租金收入的下降。星展銀行預測,九龍倉置業2025年上半年基本盈利將按年下降約1%,達31億港元。
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