《大行》高盛料內地券商次季盈利強勁 升目標價
高盛發表報告指出,近20家內地傳統券商預告2025年上半年淨利潤按年增長50%以上。該行認爲,此強勁表現主要得益於由資本市場參與度提升帶動的經紀及投資銀行業務收入增長,與該行自5月以來對券商板塊的樂觀觀點一致。該行料內地券商次季盈利強勁。
在高盛研究覆蓋範圍內,中金公司(03908.HK)於7月14日預告2025年上半年淨利潤按年增長55%至78%,高於該行此前預測的55%。據此,高盛將覆蓋的三家傳統券商(中金公司(03908.HK)、中信證券(06030.HK)及廣發證券(01776.HK))的2025年盈利預測平均上調1%,A/H股目標價分別平均上調3%及10%。該行上調多家券商目標價,詳見另表。
儘管高盛將東方財富(300059.SZ)的2025年盈利預測上調3%(主要反映交易收入可能優於預期,與傳統券商的調整方向一致),但維持「沽售」評級。該行認爲,東方財富在基金分銷業務面臨結構性挑戰,且盈利預測仍存下行風險,其2025及2026年淨利潤預測分別較市場共識低5%及11%。此外,根據恆生電子(600570.SH)的業績預告,高盛將其2025年淨利潤預測下調3%(相較先前預測),但認爲券商盈利復甦將爲IT外包服務帶來擴張機會,故維持恆生電子「買入」評級。
富途控股(FUTU.US)與老虎證券(TIGR.US)的前瞻市盈率自4月初低點顯着反彈,高盛認爲部分原因與穩定幣題材相關。儘管兩家公司於2025年1月獲批虛擬資產交易平臺(VATP)牌照,但該行預期加密貨幣交易在短期內的財務貢獻微乎其微。然而,香港市場交易量超出預期及IPO活動回暖,促使高盛將富途控股及老虎證券的淨利潤預測平均上調6%,並將2026年目標市盈率倍數上調1倍,目標價分別修訂至124.89美元及3.66美元。基於估值考量及盈利增長空間有限,高盛維持富途控股「中性」及老虎證券「沽售」評級。
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