《大行》匯豐研究升京東健康(06618.HK)目標價至49元 估值合理評級「持有」
匯豐環球研究發表報告指出,京東健康(06618.HK)受強勁藥品銷售和廣告增長推動,收入增長續處軌道上,對京東健康在今年次季實現收入17%的按年增長及全年18%的年增長保持信心。該行認為,來自第一方(1P)的藥品銷售以及第三方(3P)商家的廣告需求強勁,為穩定的收入增長奠定了基礎,並預計藥品銷售將繼續以雙位數增長領跑收入,受益於專利藥銷售的強勁勢頭。此外,京東外賣服務的營銷努力提升了平台整體流量,舊換新計劃也看似有助醫療器械銷售按年增長。匯研對京東健康的收入和盈利的預測基本不變。
該行認為,供應鏈能力提升和經營槓桿將推動公司利潤率按年擴張。在考慮更新後的股權成本(COE)後,匯研將京東健康目標價從45元上調至49元,意味約3%的上行空間。該股本年至今累升約72%(同期恆指升25%),以2025年預估市盈率約27倍和2025年每股盈利增長10%預測計算,匯研認為估值合理,因此維持「持有」評級。
京東健康將於8月公布中期業績,匯研預計,京東健康今年次季收入將達到177億元人民幣,按年增長17%,較首季因流感爆發帶動的25%年增率回歸正常。非國際財務報告準則(Non-IFRS)的營運利潤率預計大致持平,為5.4%。對於今年下半年,匯研預計公司收入年增15%,Non-IFRS營運利潤率則因加大線上線下(O2O)業務投資,料按年輕微放緩至3.2%。
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