《大行》中國銀河證券料雅下水電項目每年水泥需求超100萬噸 料西南區域佈局較完善的華新水泥及海螺水泥受益
華新水泥(06655.HK)今日股價彈高近85.6%報18.6元,成交額69.13億元,海螺水泥(00914.HK)亦搶高近9%報24.25元,成交額9.78億元。
就上周六(19日)上午雅魯藏布江下游水電工程開工儀式在西藏自治區林芝市舉行,國務院總理李強出席開工儀式,並宣布工程正式開工。中國銀河證券發表報告,雅下水電工程混凝土需求超4,000萬立方米,推動西藏地區水泥發展新契機。雅魯藏布江下游水電工程位於西藏自治區林芝市,該工程主要採取截彎取直、隧洞引水的開發方式,建設5座梯級電站,總投資約1.2萬億人民幣,工程電力以外送消納為主,兼顧西藏本地自用需求。
根據華夏能源網數據,該水利工程項目裝機容量預計6,000萬至7,000萬千瓦,是三峽工程的三倍,年發電量約3,000億千瓦時。參考三峽大壩1,600多萬立方米的混凝土澆築量,預計雅魯藏布江下游水電站項目混凝土總用量超4,000萬立方米,對應水泥總用量約1,600多萬噸,每年水泥需求超100萬噸,佔近五年西藏地區水泥產量的約10%。隨著雅魯藏布江下游水電工程項目的持續推進,尤其是進入水庫大壩等工程主體施工階段,水泥需求將顯著增長,直接帶動西藏地區水泥行業銷售上揚,推動區域水泥行業及企業迎來新的發展契機。
運輸半徑限制下,西南區域水泥龍頭企業有望受益。因水泥「短腿」屬性,陸上運輸半徑通常不超過300公里,雅魯藏布江下游水電站工程將利好西南區域市場佈局較完善的水泥企業。西藏天路(600326.SH)是西藏本地水泥龍頭企業,2024年公司西藏區域營業收入佔比為83.43%,公司2024年水泥產量為393.69萬噸,西藏地區市佔率(按產量統計)近30%。隨著雅下水電項目工程的推進,西藏天路作為本地水泥國企,有望憑藉地理優勢及當地產能佈局優勢,主導該工程水泥的供應。此外,西藏本地整體水泥產能有限,工程高峰期可能需要從川渝地區調運水泥,在西南區域佈局較完善的華新水泥、海螺水泥有望受益。
中國銀河證券指,雅魯藏布江下游水電工程項目將直接拉動西藏及周邊地區水泥需求,疊加水泥「反內捲」、供給優化背景下,西南區域水泥價格有增長預期,區域水泥龍頭企業將顯著受益,建議關注:西藏天路、華新水泥、海螺水泥。
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