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《大行》摩通看好京東物流(02618.HK)穩健增長 維持「增持」評級 目標價16元
摩根大通發表報告指出,京東物流(02618.HK)在過去三個月表現優於其母公司京東(09618.HK)、大市以及其他大多數中國物流服務供應商股價上漲15%;其亮眼表現,與順豐控股(06936.HK)20%漲幅相似,顯示其在競爭激烈的市場中,擁有重資產、定位高端的物流企業展現出的強大韌性。 該行指出,中國國家郵政局近期強調物流行業的「反內捲」(反破壞性競爭)政策,這與京東物流專注高端產品和多元化業務結構的策略一致,若政策得以落實,或有助緩解整個物流行業的估值壓力,對京東物流有利。雖然京東進軍食品配送領域,直接與美團(03690.HK)和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)等巨頭競爭引起了一些擔憂,但摩通預計,從今年第三季起,京東物流的財務影響將為正面,特別是在收入增長方面,長期來看,京東物流預計新增業務將保持盈利,京東的合理定價將確保盈利能力。 摩通表示,預計京東物流今年次季收入增長12%至13%,達到474億元人民幣,淨利潤增長5%,達到25.6億元人民幣,2025年全年指引穩定,預計收入實現雙位數按年增長。鑑於有關戰略措施和有利的市場條件,摩通維持對京東物流的「增持」評級,相信其能充分利用監管變化機會,並擴展其高端物流和食品配送業務。 摩通又基於2026財年預估的企業價值/息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EV/EBITDA)為3倍,考慮到京東物流約有30%的收入來自其母公司京東(09618.HK),且目前尚無股東回報,因此較行業平均估值存在約40%的折讓,對該公司的2026年12月的目標價為16元。
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