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《大行》高盛料今年本港樓價持平 升新世界(00017.HK)評級至 「中性」 降信置(00083.HK)至「沽售」
高盛發表報告指,香港房地產市場連跌七年後初見穩定跡象,繼續預期住宅物業將跑嬴商業房地產。儘管如此,相對緩慢的經濟增長及港元/美元終端利率約2%至3%,可能意味著本地房地產行業復甦緩慢。然而,儘管市場對每股盈利和每股派息預測下調,本地地產股今年以來的平均股價仍上升16%。 高盛指,獲「買入」評級的新地(00016.HK)和長實(01113.HK)將在每股盈利和每股派息增長方面領先,而評級為「沽售」的恆地(00012.HK)和被降至「沽售」的信置(00083.HK)則落後。該行提到,信置利潤過度依賴定期存款相關利息收入,而隨著利率下降,令該收入受壓;第二是其股息的股票選擇權稀釋了股本數量,侵蝕了每股淨資產值和每股盈利增長;第三是在房地產市場改善時,該股表現落後於同行。 該行同時將新世界發展(00017.HK)評級由 「沽售 」調高至 「中性」,原因是認為公司在近期完成880 億元再融資及永續債遞延派息後,流動資金狀況將會改善;預期資產回報率或股本回報率將會在物業發展銷售預訂的帶動下改善;預期中期內營運現金流將抵銷融資和投資現金流。 該行預計今年本港住宅價格持平,隨後兩年分別增長5%和6%,因為負擔能力已恢復、大部分限制已取消、利率下降以及投資者需求上升。然而,商業物業的復甦可能需要更長時間,該行預計今年辦公室及零售價格分別下跌8%和持平,2026和2027年平均上漲約1%和2%。商業物業租金今年可能仍面臨壓力,但未來兩年預計將以低個位數增長。辦公室和零售空間的空置率高於住宅部分,而住宅物業的租金增長在過去兩年中已恢復正增長。
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