《大行》麥格理料內地全年汽車銷量升4.5% 首選首選小鵬(09868.HK)目標93元
麥格理發表研究報告指,6月內地汽車零售銷量按年增18%至208萬輛,創歷年同期新高,主要受政府補貼與折扣所推動。當中電動車銷量按年增30%,年初至今,整體汽車銷售升11%,新能源車滲透率從1月的42%升至6月的53%。該行預期全年整體汽車及新能源車銷量將按年增長4.5%及24%,料全年新能源車滲透率為57%。
出口方面,6月汽車出口按月升7%至48萬輛,當中新能源車出口按年增1.49倍,比亞迪(01211.HK)等龍頭企業加快海外擴張。燃油車出口則按年跌6%,部分因俄羅斯市場疲軟。內地政府近期將奢侈消費稅門檻由120萬元人民幣下調至90萬元人民幣,令進口品牌承壓。即使寶馬及平治的平均折扣率已高達38%,但需要進一步減價的壓力仍然存在。報告又提到,下半年25萬元人民幣以上的高端純電SUV市場將有大量迎密集新品,新車型將衝擊現有主導者特斯拉(TSLA.US)和蔚來(09866.HK)(NIO.US),兩者合計市佔率達70%。
股份方面,該行首選小鵬(09868.HK)(XPEG.US),對其市場份額及非核心增長持積極看法,目標價93元及24美元;次選為吉利(00175.HK),料其透過具競爭力及可盈利的車款,可於大眾市場獲得市場份額,目標價22元。而比亞迪海外銷售強勁,H股目標價160元,A股(002594.SZ)目標價460元人民幣。至於小米(01810.HK)SU7與YU7車型引發消費者行為變化,為該行買入標的,目標價69.32元;上述股份均獲「跑贏大市」評級。
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