《大行》 中金:預期百度(09888.HK)核心廣告收入遜預期 目標價96元 維持「跑贏行業」評級
中金發表研究報告指,預計百度(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)第二季收入按年降低3.8%至327億元;其中,百度核心收入按年降低3.8%至257億元。中金預期集團今年次季非通用準則淨利潤為36億元,其中百度核心非通用準則淨利潤為39億元。
中金表示,根據近期與公司的溝通,公司預計第二季AI生成內容佔比持續提升,且這一比例在第三季度或將進一步提升。由於公司要求商業化產品減少對用戶體驗的影響,商業化產品的探索低於公司預期,因此對收入端形成較大壓力。另考慮到視頻娛樂直播業務YY Live並表影響,中金預計第二季核心廣告收入按年降幅擴大至16%。中金認為百度核心廣告可否回暖仍有待繼續追蹤用戶使用習慣的變化,以及公司擅長的健康、旅遊、教育、法律等細分賽道的商業化變現進度。
中金指,考慮到廣告收入大幅承壓,預計第二季百度核心非通用準則經營利潤40億元,對應非通用準則經營利潤率15.5%,顯著低於去年同期。
因百度核心廣告低預期,中金下調百度2025年和2026年收入1%和2%至1,313億元和1,322億元,下調2025年和1026年非通用準則淨利潤16%和8%至182億元和218億元,維持「跑贏行業」評級。考慮部分板塊估值提振,中金維持百度(BIDU.US)目標價99.1美元、百度(09888.HK)目標價96港元,基於SOTP估值法對應美股和港股均為14倍、11倍的2025年、2026年非通用準則市盈率,較當前美股和港股分別有6%和8%的上行空間。
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