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《大行》花旗料恆指今年底目標兩萬五 明年年中目標兩萬六 籲增持互聯網、科技及消費板塊
花旗發表亞股策略報告表示,儘管宏觀環境波動,亞洲股市表現仍優於全球同行,美國關稅問題使短期展望不明朗,但花旗股票策略師對中期前景仍持建設性看法,該行料MSCI亞洲(不包括日本)指數至2026年中將有約7%的回報,此相當預測市盈率14倍,該行在亞股中看好中國及南韓市場,其企業每股盈測修訂趨勢較佳、估值合理,且受益於結構性主題(人工智慧、公司治理改革)。 該行予恆指於今年年底目標25,000點、明年年中目標更達26,000點,予滬深300指數於今年年底目標4,200點、明年年中目標達4,350點。該行料MSCI中國指數今年年底目標79點、明年年中目標82點。 花旗表示,宏觀而言,中國政府致力於將地方經濟增長轉向消費主導,而非投資主導。中國在應對美國貿易政策時立場堅定,但也表現出開放討論的態度。該行傾向於選擇國內相關股票,以避免貿易關稅上升的不確定性。內地政府潛在推出刺激措施包括消費券、財政和貨幣刺激,但由於當前情況並非最壞情景,刺激力度可能適中,料消費、互聯網、原材料和科技等行業可能從政府刺激中受益更多。 該行料,於貿易關稅上升,市場對企業的每股盈利預測下調趨勢明顯。恆生指數2025年每股盈利預測下調至4%,2026年每股盈利預測下調至8.1%,分別較三個月前的5.0%和8.6%下降,估計工業板塊的下調幅度最大。受美國關稅上升影響最大的行業包括通訊基礎設施、硬件、太陽能、半導體和工業。相反,內銀、消費、保險和公用事業受此因素影響較小。 該行指,恆生指數預測市盈率為9.9倍,市賬率為1.1倍,略低於歷史均值10.3倍和1.2倍。同樣,滬深300指數和MSCI中國指數的預測市盈率和市賬率也接近或略低於歷史均值。假設美國降息次數多於中國(有利於港元),該行傾向於選擇H股而非A股。該行將恆生指數2025年底目標上調2%至25,000點,假設中美關係在今年晚些時候變得正面;該行亦新增至2026年上半年末目標預測26,000點。 花旗稱,MSCI中國行業權重模型投資組合中,該行將消費板塊從「中性」上調至「增持」,傾向於國內相關股票並為潛在的政府刺激做準備。將運輸板塊從增持下調至「中性」,因全球貨運量在美國貿易關稅增加的背景下存在下行風險。該行對中國市場旗下互聯網、科技及消費板塊予「增持」評級。
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