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《大行》招商證券國際:吉利汽車(00175.HK)合併極氪(ZK.US) 有利聚焦核心資源 升目標價至32元
阿思達克 07-18 10:45
招商證券國際發表研究報告指,吉利汽車(00175.HK)與極氪(ZK.US)簽署合併協議,收購其尚未持有的全部極氪股份,極氪私有化完成後將退市。招商證券國際認為,合併後吉利旗下四大核心品牌皆屬香港上市公司,有利於聚焦核心資源,減少關聯交易,提升公司投資價值。 招商證券國際估計,極氪Pre-IPO的投資者多為產業基金或戰略合作企業,考慮當前港股公司高增長但估值偏低,大概率選擇換股以獲得更好的提升價值機會。僅有少量上市後買入的投資者選擇現金,因此對吉利賬面現金影響極為有限。 該行續指,吉利汽車持續內部整合,私有化極氪是繼領克極氪合併後推進「一個吉利」戰略的重大舉措。合併協議消除市場對「一個吉利」戰略推進的疑慮,內部整合深化後,各品牌間產品線及渠道協同、減少重複投資、共享技術等可大幅降低營運成本。此外,吉利汽車近期逆勢上調年銷量目標至300萬輛,彰顯公司長線發展信心,下半年將推出銀河A7、銀河M9、領克900、極氪9X四款旗艦車型,帶動公司下半年進入銷量利潤強勢齊升周期。該行認為公司仍有可能超預期完成300萬輛的銷售目標。 招商國際證券表示,保守假設合併極氪交易在四季度完成,對2025、2026年股本擴大影響(加權平均)為3.6%、10.9%。考慮公司產品周期強勁,分別上調2025至2027財年銷量11%、11%、10%至300萬、366萬、420萬輛,上調同期核心淨利潤預測(剔除一次性及匯兌因素)9%、8%、10%。 該行亦考慮到公司內部整合順利推進,中長線成長動力強勁,以及股本擴大集中影響體現在明年,估值前移至26財年,上調目標價至32元(前次27.5元),相當於16.4倍2026年市盈率,接近公司歷史平均估值16倍,評級「增持」,是行業首推股。
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