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《大行》美銀證券上調油價預測 升中石油(00857.HK)目標價至8元
美銀證券表示,2025年第二季,市場能源價格持續按季下降,其中中國動力煤及冶金煤價格分別下跌12%及9%,布倫特期油價格下跌11%,東北亞現貨液化天然氣(LNG)下跌12%。與此同時,受可再生能源替代、貿易衝突及刺激政策有限的影響,能源需求保持疲弱。2025年前五個月,中國動力煤表觀需求為16.47億噸,按年下降0.4%;石油需求為3.81億噸,按年增長0.8%;天然氣需求為1,740億立方米,按年下降0.9%;精煉油消費量為1.53億噸,按年下降6.7%。因此,美銀證券預計中國能源生產商2025年第二季盈利將按季下降。 美銀證券預計中國石油(00857.HK)第二季業績符合預期,2025年第二季淨利潤為397億元人民幣,按季下降15%,按年下降7%,主要受以下因素驅動:(1)實現的原油價格下降;(2)油氣需求疲弱;(3)下游業務表現平淡。該行預計其A股回購計劃將與第二季業績一同發布。中國石化(00386.HK)第二季業績預計低於預期,淨利潤為63億元人民幣,按季下降55%,按年下降66%,原因包括:(1)非旺季油氣實現價格下降;(2)潛在庫存損失導致煉油毛利(GRM)惡化。 美銀證券的全球商品團隊近期將2025年布倫特原油平均價格預測上調至每桶67美元(此前為每桶65美元)。該行將中國石油(00857.HK)2025及2026財年淨利潤預測分別上調16%及10%,至1,570億元及1,600億元人民幣,並將H股目標價由6.8港元上調至8港元;中國石油(601857.SH)A股目標價由9.5元人民幣上調至10元人民幣(過去12個月A股對H股溢價40%)。 美銀證券預計中國石油2025年上半年淨利潤達865億元人民幣,按年下降2%,分別佔2025財年該行及市場共識預測的55%及54%。該行重申對中國石油「買入」評級,理由包括:(1)天然氣業務增長支撐穩健盈利;(2)股息及回購提供可觀現金回報。 美銀證券同時將中國石化(00386.HK)2025及2026財年淨利潤預測分別上調1%及19%,至360億及490億元人民幣,並相應將H股目標價由4.7港元上調至4.8港元,中國石化(600028.SH)A股目標價由6.8元人民幣下調至6.6元人民幣,因過去12個月A股對H股溢價收窄(由60%降至50%)。 該行預計中國石化2025年上半年淨利潤達203億元人民幣,按年下降45%,分別佔2025財年該行及市場共識預測的57%及40%。美銀證券重申對中國石化「買入」評級,理由包括其估值吸引(2025財年預計市賬率0.6倍)、5.4%的可觀股息率,以及伊朗石油制裁可能解除的潛在利好。
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