《大行》野村料百度(BIDU.US)與Uber(UBER.US)合作短期財務貢獻有限
野村發表研究報告,預測百度-SW(09888.HK)(BIDU.US)次季撇除愛奇藝(IQ.US)的核心業務收入將按年下跌3%至259億元人民幣,相信是受廣告收入疲弱的拖累,估計百度搜索廣告收入第二季將按年下跌15%,主要由於集團加速推動AI搜索,導致傳統搜索變現能力下降。
考慮到AI搜索變現模式尚未成熟,挑戰可能在未來幾個季度仍然存在,野村目前預期百度第三季廣告收入跌幅將擴大至18%,第四季因基數效應跌幅料收窄至12%,全年計預測廣告收入將下跌13%,明年跌幅料收窄至約5%。
廣告現金流趨弱加上AI投資額高昂,野村預測百度第二季核心非通用會計準則(non-GAAP)經營利潤率按年跌10.8個百分點至15.5%。雖然集團與UBER(UBER.US)達成自動駕駛合作,顯示出其技術優勢,但野村相信合作所帶來的財務貢獻需要數年才能體現,下調百度今明兩年non-GAAP經營利潤預測20%及18%,百度美股目標價由95美元下調至93美元,維持「中性」評級。
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