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穆迪:中國經濟在第二季度展現出韌性 惟擴張缺乏深度
阿思達克 07-15 13:55
穆迪表示,儘管面臨國內外挑戰,中國經濟在第二季度仍實現按年增長5.2%,相較第一季度的5.4%略有放緩。以季節調整後的按季度比較增長計,增長率從之前的1.2%降至1.1%。出口為經濟增長提供了顯著助力,而低迷的消費者和企業信心則拖累了內需。 中國經濟在第二季度展現出韌性,儘管國內外壓力加劇。然而,經濟擴張缺乏深度,疲弱的消費需求和私營投資減弱對整體復甦構成壓力。 內地環境未見改善。房地產行業拖累經濟增長,政策支持效果有限的證據顯示,房地產投資降幅加深,全國70個最大城市的新房價格持續下跌。這種持續疲弱正在侵蝕消費者信心並抑制零售支出。 穆迪表示,近期促進消費的努力,例如今年初擴大的消費品以舊換新計劃,確實暫時提振了零售銷售,特別是家電和通訊設備。然而,這一支持措施難以持續,據報多個省份的資金已枯竭。該計劃的局限性凸顯出決策者需解決消費者謹慎背後的深層結構性問題,包括收入增長停滯和就業保障脆弱。 在外部環境方面,貿易提供了關鍵助力,主要受美國總統特朗普設定的關稅截止日期前的提前需求推動。對東盟的出口激增,因企業趕在7月9日可能的關稅上調前加速運送中間產品以轉口至美國。上週,美國將部分國家的10%關稅延長至8月1日。與此同時,本季度對美國的出口大幅下降。即使有臨時休戰,美國對中國的關稅仍遠高於特朗普上任前的水平,對雙邊貿易構成持續壓力。距離美中貿易談判預定結束不到一個月,市場關注焦點轉向北京與華盛頓能否達成持久的貿易協議。穆迪預計貿易休戰將延長至8月12日之後,為兩國領導人會晤爭取時間。若無高層直接參與,難以取得實質進展。 穆迪表示,最終僅靠外部貿易無法彌補內需疲弱的拖累。若無更強大、持續的政策支持和結構性改革以提升家庭收入和信心,中國經濟在下半年可能進一步失去復甦動能。
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