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《大行》大和:投資者料未來6個月是中國股市「整固期」該行對內房刺激措施預期相對較低
大和發表港股報告示,該行上周二(8日)至上周四(10日)前往馬來西亞首都吉隆坡和新加坡進行市場推廣活動,當時美國總統特朗普向一批貿易夥伴發出關稅信函。與股市的平淡反應相似,該行接觸的大多數投資者對關稅頭條新聞似乎未受影響,這與預期「TACO」(特朗普退縮)以及貿易談判截止日期進一步延長至8月1日有關。對於中國方面,投資者認為,憑藉其在稀土生產方面的主導地位,中國在與美國的貿易談判中處於有利地位,而即將舉行的歐中峰會以及2025年下半年的潛在中美峰會可能帶來更樂觀的地緣政治前景。 在商業基本面方面,投資者對製造業產能過剩問題、內房刺激效果減弱越來越多的擔憂。在7月1日的高層會議上,中國政策制定者承諾打擊「無序」價格戰並推動落後產能退出,該行認為這是扭轉「內捲」的重要一步。然而,與2015至2017年的結構性供給側改革相比,大和認為這次政策制定者需要採取更漸進和「市場導向」的方式,在減少產能、保障就業和提振私營部門信心之間保持平衡。因此,雖然2025年下半年在國有企業主導的上游行業(如鋼鐵、煤炭和水泥)可能會看到更多直接政府干預,但對於下游行業(如汽車和太陽能)的產能過剩問題,該行預計僅會有「口頭指導」或「軟性價格指導」,這可能需要數年時間。 在房地產方面,雖然近期擴大城市更新項目的政策希望支撐了市場情緒,但由於地方財政狀況仍然緊張,大和對今年餘下時間的房地產刺激措施預期相對較低。高線(high-tier)城市的大多數購房限制已取消,過去18個月內人行已兩次下調存量貸款的按揭貸款利率。在2025年上半年經濟復甦向好和關稅影響可控的背景下,該行認為政策制定者將專注於實施現有刺激政策,而非推出激進的「增量」刺激措施。 大和指,由於缺乏進一步推動指數突破的強有力催化劑,投資者認為未來6個月將是中國股市的「整固期」,部分投資者表達了謹慎的市場觀點。然而,該行接觸的大多數投資者表示,鑑於市場流動性充足和政策保障有力,市場下行風險得到保護,目前將維持對中國股市的中性或略微超配立場。投資者繼續對行業交易主題表現出濃厚興趣,例如新消費,如茶飲股和泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)和生物技術。然而,隨著這些主題的基金持倉日益「擁擠」,該行認為投資者在今年下半年通過這些行業交易主題跑贏大市的挑戰將越來越大。
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