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《大行》大摩上調金價第四季預測至3,800美元 偏好黃金、白銀和期銅
摩根士丹利發表金屬行業報告表示,美元匯價進一步走弱下,應為大宗商品提供順風(tailwind),美國若通脹上升也可能吸引資金流入,而任何中國刺激經濟政策對行業都將是意外的利好。然而美國關稅帶來增長風險,因為前期囤貨效應逐漸消退。該行偏好黃金、白銀和COMEX(紐約商品期貨交易所)期銅。 該行預計8月1日起美國對特定國家的關稅將再次上調,鋼鐵、鋁和銅等行業關稅也可能影響及推高工業部門的成本通脹。出口繼續支撐中國金屬需求,但隨著關稅暫緩結束,這一支持可能減弱。 大摩表示認為今年金屬市場的趨勢將持續,COMEX銅、黃金和白銀有上行空間,但鉑金在經歷約50%的上漲後將趨於穩定。該行將第四季度黃金目標價上調每盎司至3,800美元,中央銀行和投資需求持續支撐需求,受美元走弱、ETF買盤以及持續不確定性背景推動,同時珠寶需求可能隨著消費者適應更高價格而回升。 該行料黃金於2025年第三季、第四季及2026年首季各為每盎司3,500美元、3,800美元及3,500美元,估計2026年至2028年全年為每盎司3,313美元、2,625美元及2,500美元。 然而,大摩亦指出,行業存在許多不確定性——關鍵問題包括美國對國家和金屬的關稅路徑、美國對關鍵礦產的232條款調查結果如何,以及中國是否會推出更多刺激措施等。
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