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《大行》招銀國際降阿里(BABA.US)目標價至141.2美元 即時零售業務加碼投資壓制短期盈利
招銀國際發表報告指,阿里-W(09988.HK)(BABA.US)正加大即時零售業務投入,以塑造長期電商發展優勢。對於今年6月底止首財季,該行預期(1)雲業務收入按季加速增長;(2)淘天集團貨幣化率持續按年提升;(3)國際數字商業(AIDC)業務虧損繼續按年收窄。然而,即時零售的加碼投資將壓制短期盈利,該行預測2026財年第一及二季度將分別投入約100億和200億元人民幣,可能導致集團調整後EBITA按年下滑16%及45%。關鍵監測指標包括用戶留存率、黏性及交叉銷售率等投資回報數據。據此該行下調阿里2026至2028財年非GAAP淨利潤預測9%及18%,並因淘天盈利預期下調,將美股目標價降低9%至141.2美元(原為155.5美元),對應14倍2027財年非GAAP市盈率。該行認為阿里仍是AI主題核心受益者,建議投資者放眼短期盈利波動之外。維持「買入」評級。 招銀國際預估阿里2026財年第一季度營收達2,457億元人民幣,按年增長1%,較市場共識預期低4%,主要受高鑫零售(06808.HK)與銀泰業務出表影響。由於集團加大即時零售業務投入(預估本季度投入約100億元人民幣),預期集團調整後EBITA將達379億元人民幣,按年下滑16%。 當前該行預測阿里將於今年9月底止2026財年第二季度進一步加碼投資,夏季旺季期間即時零售總投入金額料將按季翻倍。雖然此舉有望通過提升用戶黏性與購物頻次與核心電商業務產生協同效應,但相關投入或壓制短期盈利能力,投資回報率(ROI)相關營運數據將成為關鍵監測指標。
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