《大行》中金:騰訊(00700.HK)遊戲業務仍較健康 維持「跑贏行業」評級 目標價600元
中金髮表研究報告指出,更新對騰訊控股(00700.HK)的追蹤後,認爲公司的遊戲業務仍較爲健康,同時廣告業務驅動力穩健,整體高質量增長持續。該行基本維持騰訊2025、2026年收入及盈利預測不變,維持「跑贏行業」評級及目標價600元,對應2025年及2026年非國際財務報告準則市盈率20倍及18倍,較當前股價有21%上行空間
該行預計騰訊2025年第二季度遊戲業務按年增速依然健康。國內遊戲方面,該行認爲騰訊2025年第二季度國內遊戲收入相比第一季度按年增速或有所放緩;但從增速絕對值來看,預計2025年第二季度國內遊戲收入按年增長16%,依然健康,主要考慮到《王者榮耀》、《和平精英》等長青老遊戲的生命力仍不可小覷;同時《三角洲行動》等次新遊表現較優,仍可貢獻增量。
海外遊戲方面,中金錶示,由於Supercell等子公司優質遊戲擁有較好的流水變現能力,且具備更長的流水收入攤銷週期,預計2025年第二季度騰訊海外遊戲收入仍可繼續受益,按年增長16%。展望下半年,騰訊遊戲確實存在增長基數較高的問題,但中金認爲無需過度擔憂,一方面騰訊長青遊戲及次新遊的優異表現仍能貢獻穩健的基本盤;另一方面,騰訊庫存的《Valorant手遊》、《王者榮耀世界》等遊戲管線,若能如期上線一至兩款,或可爲其遊戲收入帶來新的增量空間。
中金續指,騰訊廣告業務增速強勁,預計2025年第二季度廣告收入按年增長17%,金融與企業服務收入按年增長5%。AI投入與高質量增長同行。綜合以上因素,中金預計騰訊全年仍將呈現利潤增速超過收入增速的情況,預計2025年第二季度經調整營業利潤按年增長14%,經調整淨利潤按年增長11%。
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