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《大行》大摩降京東(JD.US)目標價至28美元 次季受外賣大戰影響最為顯著
摩根士丹利發表報告,預期京東(JD.US)於2025年第二季度在食品外賣業務投入逾100億元人民幣,導致非公認會計準則淨利潤按年下滑63%。然而,觀察到核心電商業務並未因此項投資產生顯著的交叉銷售或其他協同效應——京東零售收入增速未見季度性明顯提升,利潤率亦無實質改善。該行將京東2025、2026及2027年度盈利預測,分別下調39%、32%及30%,以反映外賣業務的投資影響。目標價由39美元下調至28美元,對應2025年預測非GAAP市盈率11倍。該行認為該估值水平具合理性,與阿里巴巴(09988.HK)電商業務的相近估值倍數相符。該行維持京東「與大市同步」評級。 展望第三季,大摩預期京東零售及總收入將按年增長10%,因以舊換新計劃於2024年9月啟動,令基數相對較高。在阿里巴巴及美團(03690.HK)的強力補貼下承壓,該行仍預測京東將在暑期旺季維持至少與2025年第二季度相同水平的外賣業務投入。因此,該行預計京東非GAAP淨利潤將按年下滑73%至36億元人民幣,意味著非GAAP淨利率將降至1.25%,對比2024年第三季度的5.06%。
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