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《港樓》仲量聯行料中小型住宅今年跌價5% 豪宅降最多10%
仲量聯行發表中期市場回顧及預測。該行香港主席曾煥平表示,樓市好淡因素爭持,樓價走勢缺乏清晰方向。HIBOR下跌、股市上漲,以及300萬至400萬元樓宇的印花稅下調均利好樓市。然而,地緣政治不確定性、負資產水平創22年新高、新盤以七折以上推售、以及潛在的商業地產危機,均爲市場帶來重大阻力。 他指,儘管2025年上半年二手市場交易量回升至約2萬宗,但二手住宅總成交量仍比2018至24年的平均水平低22%。成交量的輕微改善不足以支撐價格大幅反彈,以往的樓價反彈均建基於成交量上升逾五成或以上。 曾煥平預計到今年底,市場需要56.7個月來消化全部庫存,高於2015至21年間51.3個月的平均值,爲此發展商必須持續減價,令樓價回調的時間進一步拖長。他預料樓價將要到2026年後期,當庫存回落至健康水平,纔有望持續復甦。 不過,宏觀經濟指標顯示樓價跌幅或會放緩。受惠於定期存款規模較2021年水平倍增,在租金回報率與存款利率利差持續擴闊的帶動下,資金或會轉投地產市場。此外,人才簽證計劃帶動的人口增長率先推動了租賃需求,其後或進一步刺激置業需求。 曾煥平表示,在未來六個月,發展商仍需持續對新盤減價出售,以確保去貨速度。若市場認爲HIBOR將長期維持2釐以下,則低利率環境有望促進住宅銷售。受非本地專才及學生入境持續增加帶動,住宅租金料將突破歷史新高。而樓價方面,他預期中小型住宅價格今年將下跌5%。此外,受財困影響而放售的商用物業增加,影響同時持有豪宅物業的業主,因此,對豪宅資本價格預測從原先的下跌5%調整至下跌5%至10%。他又預期負資產數字會繼續上升,而這會間接影響零售消費意欲及氣氛。 土地市場方面,仲量聯行評估及諮詢部主管區建強指出,政府計劃於今年下半年推出北部都會區「片區開發」試點土地招標,2024年底公佈的初步方案目前已收到22份意向書。然而,當前市況會削弱投資者的投資興趣。信貸緊縮也增加了發展商的融資成本,新盤持續減價亦影響潛在利潤。發展商還須承擔地盤平整、基建工程、道路及休憩空間建造等責任,以及將非住宅用地歸還政府,種種因素均可能限制盈利空間,降低私營機構的參建意願。 區建強建議,政府可從住宅銷售利潤中分取餘款,通過分期支付方式減輕發展商財務壓力;考慮到片區規模,應允許發展商在公共基建等環節遇到問題時進行靈活調整;及就公共基建發展提供充分指導。 他續指,由於市場需要更多時間消化現有和即將推出的公私營項目供應,因此合理的策略應爲集中發展北部都會區,並暫緩交椅洲人工島計劃,直至預期的住宅供應無法滿足需求爲止。 另外,曾煥平提到,政府需要將建築費用降低,本港的建築成本每尺達6,000元,高於新加坡及內地一線城市。他認爲本港的建築條例已不合時宜,因此令行政成本大增,期望政府就此多加研究。
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