《大行》匯豐研究:內地6月PPI跌幅擴大 料需更多政策提振內需 估至明年次季方恢復正增長
中國公佈6月CPI按年轉升0.1%(市場預測跌0.1%),6月PPI按年跌3.6%(市場預測跌3.2%)。匯豐環球研究發表報告表示,內地6月通脹數據顯示喜憂參半,核心CPI穩步回升,PPI收縮加劇,政策支持仍是關鍵。
該行指,中國6月通脹數據呈現複雜局面,CPI按年升0.1%(該行原預測無起跌),而PPI跌幅加深至3.6%,低於預期(該行原預測降3.3%),雖然當前總體消費價格相對溫和,但持續的政策支持,如擴大財政支出直接補貼消費以及提振消費者信心的結構性措施,應繼續支撐核心CPI的溫和回升。然而,房地產市場疲軟和外部不確定性仍是下半年價格復甦的關鍵風險。另一方面,除提振終端需求的政策外,還需更多供給側措施幫助PPI擺脫通縮壓力。
匯豐環球研究指,PPI通縮主要源於油價按年疲軟、產能過剩及終端需求不足。石油與天然氣開採、石油與煤炭製造及化學材料產品價格分別年比下跌12.6%、13.5%和6.1%。房地產需求疲弱也拖累了相關供應鏈行業,黑色金屬和非金屬礦物製造價格分別按年跌11.3%和4.3%。
展望未來,內地傳統和新興能源相關行業的產能過剩可能需更長時間平衡供需,單純市場化解決方案可能過於痛苦且耗時,內地政府主導的減產或爲必要。近期政策制定者多次強調打擊「內卷」競爭,市場預期「供給側結構性改革2.0」可能正在醞釀。此外,外部關稅不確定性加劇了出口依賴行業的下行壓力,計算機及其他電子設備、電氣設備製造價格環比分別下跌0.4%和0.2%。
匯豐研究指,核心CPI的穩定改善若能持續將利好經濟。當前更大的通縮挑戰來自生產端,需更多時間和政策努力消除低效產能並提振內需。預計內地PPI將於明年第二季度恢復按年正增長。同時,預計下半年政策將保持促增長立場,但北京或傾向於針對結構性問題採取結構性措施,大規模刺激政策不太可能出臺。
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