《大行》高盛升中石油(00857.HK)目標價至8.3元 上調中海油(00883.HK)目標價至20.9元
高盛研究報告指,基於近期的地緣政治事件,次季布倫特油價已達每桶67美元,高於該行早前預計的65美元。而國有企業煉油廠的減產,加上獨立煉油廠的低使用率,令本地油產品庫存下降,以致在需求疲弱下,次季煉油利潤仍高過預期。基於次季油價下跌20%,該行預期中石油(00857.HK)及中石化(00386.HK)淨收入分別按年跌30%及46%,而中海油(00883.HK)上半年淨收入則跌16%。
該行繼續看好中石油及中海油,將中石油目標價由8元升至8.3元,將中海油目標價由20元升至20.9元,均予「買入」評級,預期兩者2026財年自由現金流收益率(FCF Yield)均有雙位數,收益率在同行中較高,且估值亦較國際同行平均水平低。假設布倫特油價為每桶60美元,兩者收益率仍分別有10%及9%。
另外,該行維持中石化的「中性」評級及目標價3.7元,因預期集團自由現金流收益率較弱,基於化工行業持續過剩,以及資本開支高企,令該行更看好上游企業。(ss/w)
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