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《大行》匯豐研究:奢侈品行業整體增長放緩 看好愛馬仕及普拉達(01913.HK)等
阿思達克 07-03 14:55
匯豐環球研究報告指,全球奢侈品上半年業績或顯示企業間的明顯分化,但整體增長將會放緩。該行調整其所覆蓋的奢侈品板塊的目標價,看好愛馬仕(Hermes)及Burberry的次季收入持續改善,同時偏好Richemont和普拉達(01913.HK),均予以「買入」評級。 該行認爲,奢侈品銷售首季開局強勁但結束疲弱,但次季正好相反。美國4月份「解放日」的衝擊導致信心、市場和美元迅速下滑,影響奢侈品需求,但5月和6月表現可能有所改善。然而,「賣方」(Sell-side)認爲除宏觀因素影響外,奢侈品行業(主要是手袋和配飾)正遭遇創意不足與貪婪通脹(greedflation)的雙重困境,導致消費者推遲購買或轉向價值更具吸引力的消費領域,如更實惠的手袋或珠寶。 此外,該行指「賣方」尚未就歐元兌美元匯率持續40個月強勢的情況適當調整盈利預測。而「買方」(Buy-side)相信隨着今年第三季有利的基數、中國消費者年底開始迴歸,以及2026年中國和美國市場的增長,或可改善收入增長。該行還預期會看到成本控制和產品組合管理方面將展現更強的紀律性。 在大型股中,該行認爲瑞士Richemont的珠寶業務表現強勁,相較於整體低迷的奢侈品領域更爲突出;愛馬仕因其供需緊張局面依然健康。其他企業中,匯豐較早前看好Burberry的重新定位。該行亦認爲普拉達估值較同業吸引。 匯豐研究涵蓋的奢侈品公司的評級|目標價 普拉達(01913.HK)|買入|66港元→67港元 Burberry|買入|1,400英鎊→1,450英鎊 愛馬仕|買入|2,900歐元→2,800歐元 Richemont|買入|185瑞士法郎→180瑞士法郎 Moncler|持有|60歐元→55歐元 LVMH|持有|540歐元→500歐元 Swatch|持有|125瑞士法郎→120瑞士法郎
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