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《大行》摩通:澳門6月賭收勁超預期 首選美高梅中國(02282.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)
摩根大通表示,澳門6月賭收表現極爲強勁,超出預期。博彩總收入按年激增19%至211億澳門元,大幅超出(已上調的)市場共識預期9%。這是一份非常亮眼的數據,無論從何角度分析。首先,這一數據表明相較疫情前水平恢復至88%,是疫情以來最高的恢復率(相較2024財年的79%或2025年第一季的76%)。其次,6月的日均收入達到7.02億澳門元,高於5月的6.84億澳門元(按月增長3%),儘管通常季節性規律顯示按月應下降高單位數百分比。第三,這一數據甚至超過市場上最樂觀的預測(按年增長12%)。 摩通指,隨着4月至6月每個月表現,均超出歷史季節性規律和市場共識預期,2025年第二季錄得超過五年來最高的博彩總收入,達610億澳門元,按年增長8%,高端和中場兩大板塊均表現強勁,超出季節性規律(通常按季下降2%至4%),該行估計VIP板塊增長更快(按季增長10%,按年增長12%),相較中場市場(按季增長5%,按年增長8%)。與疫情前相比,第二季賭收達到2019年第二季的83%(2024財年爲77%,2025年第一季爲76%),其中中場/角子機博彩收入恢復至120%以上(2024財年及2025年第一季爲110%至115%),VIP則恢復至25%(2024財年爲23%,2025年第一季爲逾20%)。 從總體來看,摩通估計第二季行業EBITDA將按季及按年增長2%至4%,達到疫情前水平的83%至85%,相較第一季的79%。該行認爲EBITDA增長(按季升2%至4%)可能略慢於博彩總收入增長(按季升6%),原因在於業務結構轉向高端板塊(VIP與中場之間,以及中場內部),以及高端客戶的促銷和再投資可能增加(反映Cappella開業、衆多演唱會/活動及金沙集團近期的策略轉型)。儘管如此,2025年第二季預計將是長期以來首次超出市場預期和歷史季節性規律的季度。 摩通表示,一個月前已因行業評級上調而修訂預測,但6月的強勁超預期表現顯示進一步的上行風險。雖然6月的高增長難免放緩,但該行仍樂觀預期下半年博彩總收入能實現高單位數增長(相較該行此前預測的升5%),包括7月。在該行看來,對澳門博彩股(其交易流量主要由對衝基金主導)最重要的,是市場預期數字的變動方向。該行認爲這是18個月以上來首次觸底——因此該行早前上調評估。該行的選股排序爲:美高梅中國(02282.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)(首選)>金沙中國(01928.HK)>永利澳門(01128.HK)>新濠博亞(MLCO.US)>澳博(00880.HK)> 新濠(00200.HK)。 股份?評級?目標價(港元) 美高梅中國(02282.HK)?增持?15港元 銀河娛樂(00027.HK)?增持?42港元 永利澳門(01128.HK)?增持?6.5港元 金沙中國(01928.HK)?增持?18港元 新濠博亞(MLCO.US)?中性?7.2美元 澳博(00880.HK)?中性?2.2港元 新濠(00200.HK)?減持?2.6港元
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