《大行》摩根大通升Nike目標價至64美元 評級「中性」
摩根大通研究報告指,Nike, Inc.(NKE.US)2025年第四季度每股收益為0.14美元(略高於市場預期的0.13美元),收入下降12%(優於市場預期降14.8%),毛利率為40.3%(與市場預期持平),銷售及管理費用率為37.4%(低於市場預期的38.6%),息稅前利潤率為2.9%(高於市場預期的1.7%),稅率為33.6%(高於市場預期的15.0%),對每股收益造成0.04美元的稀釋影響。
摩通指,管理層指引2026財年首季度報告收入將下降中個位數,毛利率收縮350至425個基點,銷售及管理費用將小幅增長,按該行計算,首季每股收益約為0.25美元(低於市場共識0.31美元約19%)。
報告認為,儘管Nike是全球運動市場的領導者,並在產品類別、地理區域及分銷渠道上具備多元化優勢,但在品牌產品生命周期轉型期間,Nike重新加速收入增長的時間將被拉長,尤其全球宏觀環境(特別是大中華區與歐洲中東非洲地區的逆風)使前路更加複雜。此外,儘管摩通預期Nike將持續實現年度毛利率擴張(受益於策略性定價及降低產品成本),但計劃繼續顯著加大對需求創造的再投資,以支持新創新產品在市場的擴展及品牌建設工作。
基於約40倍的2026年預期每股收益,摩通將2025年12月的目標價從56美元上調至64美元,相當於疫情前歷史市盈增長率(PEG)2倍,對應2026至2029財年每股收益年均複合增長率約20%,反映「過渡性」模型復甦。評級「中性」。
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