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惠譽:中國壽險行業增長放緩
評級機構惠譽稱,中國壽險行業在業務轉型過程中增速放緩,而非壽險業在政策推動下實現增長。今年首四個月,壽險和非壽險行業的保費分別按年增長1%和5%。 惠譽稱,在持續低利率環境下,壽險公司正轉向預定利率較低的分紅型產品,以降低利差損風險;但這使得產品的吸引力下降。2023年第三季度監管機構實施報行合一後,2024年銀保渠道增長放緩。2024年下半年監管機構收緊了代理人傭金成本控制,這或將削弱保險行業的保費增長前景,但可能會有利於利潤率增加。儘管關稅和貿易緊張局勢可能對行業增長前景構成挑戰,但預計政府和保險監管機構舉措將支撐車險和部分非車險產品的需求。 惠譽預計,壽險公司的財務業績波動將大於非壽險公司,因為在長期債券收益率持續走低以及監管機構鼓勵增持股票的政策推動下,壽險公司增加了對股票和長期權益類資產的投資,以追求更高的回報率。得益於嚴謹的承保標準以及不斷增強定價能力、控制成本的舉措,非壽險行業的經營業績料將保持穩定。 惠譽預期壽險和非壽險行業的監管償付能力水平預期將保持穩定。不過,具有激進投資風險偏好和業務擴張計劃的保險公司仍需要繼續通過發債補充資本。
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