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巴克萊:美國經濟在各領域仍展現出強勁韌性 部分中東歐國家和以色列特殊風險溢價或進一步走高
阿思達克 06-25 16:36
巴克萊研究團隊發表外匯及新興市場宏觀策略季度展望,估計歐元與美元對沖將持續,而美國經濟保持韌性,財政政策風險有所緩和,「沽空美元」的資金流並無異常,而貿易前置效應正在減輕關稅影響。近期,油價上漲推動美元兌亞洲貨幣走強。然而,美元兌歐元仍維持疲弱,對沖資金流成為一大主要推動因素。 巴克萊表示, 美匯指數下跌10%與亞洲投資者將其外匯對沖比率提高約1.8個百分點水平相符,這將增加約800億美元供應,相對於年度對沖資金流而言規模較小。若各市場外匯對沖比率上升至各自十年平均水平,額外的美元拋售規模將達到約1,280億美元。 該行指,去美元化的命題並非僅僅建立在資金流動和政策偏好之上,更關鍵的中期邏輯在於其底層假設:經濟政策惡化會導致經濟轉弱。美國經濟例外主義的終結必須得到數據的印證,美元疲弱趨勢才會持續。但迄今為止,所有數據都與美國優異表現終結的假設相悖。相反,美國經濟在各領域仍展現出強勁韌性。 地區衝突風險方面,巴克萊指市場仍在評估以伊衝突的持續時間,但對於衝突最終能夠得到解決的預期降低下行風險。在美國經濟增長逐漸放緩的環境下,套利策略仍可能繼續跑贏大市,因為相關貨幣目前也呈現更強勁的增長趨勢。包括俄烏衝突在內的長期軍事衝突所帶來的財政風險似乎被低估。該行的分析顯示,一些中東歐國家和以色列的特殊風險溢價仍有可能進一步走高。 就烏克蘭衝突而言,當前外匯市場並不存在佈局「快速停火」所帶來的機會。更令人擔憂的是,若衝突持續,中東歐大多國家脆弱的財政狀況恐將雪上加霜。 巴克萊預計,美元兌港元匯率短期內將維持在7.75至7.85兌換保證的較弱區間。下半年後期,在聯儲局減息及香港金管局為維護聯繫匯率制度而採取干預措施的推動下,美元兌港元匯率將下跌。隨著南向通為香港股市帶來大量資金流入,巴克萊預期2026年美元兌港元將在7.75至7.8區間波動。港元短期上行風險來自股市資金集中流入、中國經濟顯著復甦,或美中關係改善。
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