研報掘金丨國盛證券:四川路橋訂單充裕、有望向業績持續轉化
國盛證券研報指出,四川交通基建需求廣闊、財政充沛,四川路橋訂單充裕、有望向業績持續轉化。整體看,四川省中長期基建景氣確定性高,省內基建資金較爲充沛,預計蜀道集團作爲四川省交投平臺將承擔主要基建任務。其中四川路橋是蜀道集團的施工平臺,也是旗下核心資產和核心上市平臺,預計後續將持續獲蜀道集團優質施工訂單,當前四川路橋在手訂單充裕,後續業績有望持續穩健。四川路橋當前現金流呈恢復趨勢,在手現金充裕,分紅壓力較小,近對集團整體而言,資產負債率70%以下,融資靈活成本低,近高分紅後大比例資金依然在集團體內,淨流出體外的資金較少。因此後續四川路橋業績穩定性、分紅意願、分紅能力均有較高保障。我們預測公司25-27 年歸母淨利潤分別爲80/90/100 億元,同增11%/12%/11%,當前PE 分別爲11/10/9 倍,股息率分別爲5.6%/6.3%/7.1%,若公司25年切換至當前上市頭部建築國企股息率4%-5%(取4.5%),則理論市值1069 億,對應25%市值空間。
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