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《大行》大華繼顯:行業進入加速增長新階段 首選翰森製藥(03692.HK)信達生物(01801.HK)中國生物製藥(01177.HK)
大華繼顯研究報告指,中國生物技術行業已進入加速成長階段,各企業正擴展其創新商業產品組合,達成重要的對外許可授權交易,且獲得超預期的盈利能力。大華繼顯表示,持續的政策支持和全球化努力將進一步推動該行業擴張,相信該行業將繼續表現出色,有望在未來幾年實現可持續成長,予該行業的評級上調至「增持」。大華強調,信達生物(01801.HK)、翰森製藥(03692.HK)和中國生物製藥(01177.HK)為該行首選。 大華繼顯表示,根據《彭博》數據,中國前20大生物製藥企業預計在2024至2027年間實現年均複合收入增長率10.8%,是領先跨國公司5.4%的兩倍。此外,截至今年,超過5,000萬美元的預付款交易佔總交易量的42%,從2019年的0%和2024年的27%大幅上升。外部授權交易正為中國生物製藥企業創造日益顯著的收入流。 該行指,2023年全球生物製藥市場規模達到1.089萬億美元,約為國內市場的10倍。因全球市場的巨大機遇,中國企業正通過差異化策略積極追求國際擴張。百濟神州(06160.HK)已建立完全一體化的全球平台,並在海外推出兩款創新療法。與此同時,和黃醫藥(00013.HK)、翰森製藥和和譽-B(02256.HK)正與跨國公司建立外部授權合作夥伴關係,並取得顯著里程碑。此外,「新公司模式」(NewCo model)的興起使恆瑞醫藥(01276.HK)等多家企業能夠將本地研發努力與全球資源和網絡相結合,而新保險政策可能加速藥物創新。 以下是大華繼顯對部分中國生物企業的評級及目標價: 股份│評級│目標價 信達生物(01801.HK)|買入|110港元 翰森製藥(03692.HK)|買入|40港元 中國生物製藥(01177.HK)|買入|7.7港元 百濟神州(06160.HK) |買入|220港元 和黃醫藥(00013.HK)|買入|36港元 石藥集團(01093.HK)|買入|10.8港元 和譽-B(02256.HK)|買入|未評級 長江生命科技(00775.HK)|買入|未評級
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