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花旗微升恆指年底目標至25,000點 料中東局勢對港股影響不大
阿思達克 06-19 12:52
花旗發表下半年展望,對恆指今年底目標上調2%至25,000點,假設中美關係今年稍後有所進展,2026年上半年目標為26,000點。 對於近期中東局勢,花旗集團中國股票策略師劉顯達認為對港股影響不大,戰爭雖推高油價,但中國當前處於「通縮」環境,油價上升帶來的通脹未必不利。 該行指,中國經濟從投資主導轉向消費,但目前消費者信心較為脆弱,主要受到房地產價格下跌帶來的負財富效應影響,導致消費需求疲軟,內銀存款創歷史新高,反映出居民消費意願的謹慎。 在外部環境方面,該行預計中國將繼續開放市場,加強與其他國家的貿易關係,以緩解中美貿易影響。 為平衡貿易關稅風險,中國可能採取適度的貨幣和財政刺激措施包括5,000億元人民幣的創新和設備升級再融資計劃;3,000億元人民幣的補貼住房再融資計劃;為中小企業提供1,000億元人民幣的信貸支持,並可能通過發行專項債券提供資金。下調政策利率和存款準備金率(RRR);針對太陽能行業,政府可能設定技術標準以減少過剩產能。另外亦可能會派發消費券。 花旗對消費品板塊評級由「中性」升至「增持」,因受海外貿易關稅上漲影響較小,且政府刺激措施和補貼有望提振本地消費。對運輸板塊評級由「增持」降至「中性」,因全球貨運受貿易關稅上漲負面影響。儘管內銀股具有高股息,仍維持「中性」評級,原因包括銀行利差從2023年第一季度的1.74%降至2024年第四季度的1.52%。加上房地產敞口風險持續,根據國務院發展研究中心,約20%至25%的現有銀行貸款與房地產行業相關。
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