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《大行》摩根大通:短期金價回調風險上升 重申紫金(02899.HK) 「增持」評級
阿思達克 06-17 11:05
摩根大通發表研究報告指,中國央行5月黃金購買量放緩至6萬盎司,與2024年初暫停購買前的水平相同。根據該行分析,若黃金價格維持當前水平,6月暫停購買的機率已上升至約70%,認為短期內黃金價格回調的風險正在增加,原因包括:(1)美中貿易緊張局勢可能緩解;(2)中國央行暫停黃金購買的機率上升。儘管如此,基於去美元化趨勢及全球央行持續購買黃金,該行對黃金的中長期前景仍持樂觀態度。 摩根大通建議在回調時買入紫金礦業(02899.HK)(601899.SH),因其估值重估的事項依然穩固:(1)其海外金礦資產擬上市,可能為其市值帶來11%至17%的上行空間;(2)預計其黃金敞口將於2025年次季超越銅敞口,這應有助於縮小紫金與純黃金公司之間的估值差距(紫金目前12個月遠期市盈率11倍,相較純黃金公司平均預期市盈的17倍),並重申對紫金A股/港股的「增持」評級。 摩通對黃金短期前景轉趨謹慎,原因包括:(1) 若美中貿易緊張局勢緩解,黃金價格可能回調;(2) 根據摩通估計,中國央行本月暫停黃金購買的可能性約70%,可能導致黃金價格下跌約3%。該行考慮到做多黃金已成為相對擁擠的交易,認為黃金價格可能過度下跌至約3,200美元/噸以下,至3,100美元/噸,這一水平在摩通看來具有更好的風險回報。
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