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《大行》國泰君安國際:港股中長趨勢向上 科技創新引領新質生產力發展成新動能
國泰君安國際發表今年下半年經濟和市場展望報告,就美國經濟展望方面:第一季度經濟增長萎縮體現關稅對於美國經濟的衝擊。結合個人消費PCE尚可的現狀,市場傾向認為關稅衝擊下美國經濟的實際表現仍具有韌性。下半年,消費仍然是最重要。關稅最後的落地情形仍未可知,但基準預期下,特朗普政府大概率會大幅度削減對華關稅,尤其是中低端製造商品的關稅。美國財政下半年依舊困難重重,該行也因此上調全年的財政赤字率的預測值,從6.2%至6.4%。總體而言,2025年的美國經濟應該已經躍過低谷,全年的核心通脹率仍將維持在3%左右。美聯儲的貨幣政策仍將保持觀望和謹慎態勢。該行傾向於認為美聯儲全年的降息次數為2次左右。由於通脹和財政赤字可能高於預期,不排除美聯儲在年內不降息。 港股展望:上半年在中國AI產業突破利好以及特朗普關稅衝擊下,港股市場呈「N」型 走勢。在5月12日中美經貿會談以及 5月29日美國貿易法庭裁決特朗普多項關稅行政令無效後,雖然最終稅率水平仍未知,但關稅方面的最差情景已逐漸清晰;恆指多次測試兩萬點關口後回升,底部特徵明顯。 往前看,短期儘管特朗普關稅政策仍可能影響港股預期,包括美國債務上限突破後的發債行為可能帶來的港股流動性波動,但整體的影響正在邊際減弱,不改港股向上的中長趨勢。短期以央國企等為代表的優質紅利行業(銀行、電訊和公用事業等)仍然是投資組合的壓艙石。中長期來看,科技創新引領新質生產力發展,是中國經濟增長和港股上漲的新動能。
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