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《大行》匯豐升紫金(02899.HK)目標價至23.2元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 06-13 12:08
匯豐研究發表報告稱,紫金(02899.HK)持股44.45%的剛果(金)Kamoa-Kakula銅礦早前因地震活動導致停產後,於6月逐步恢復採礦作業;而Kamoa-Kakula新冶煉廠預計於今年下半年開始營運,該行對紫金H股維持「買入」評級,H股目標價從22.2元上調至23.2元。 該行表示,由Kamoa-Kakula合營夥伴、加拿大Ivanhoe礦業發出恢復採礦作業的公告,消除該銅礦產量的不確定性,紫金H股昨日(12日)上漲約5%。匯研認為,事件對紫金2025年的整體影響有限,估算其盈利僅受約2%影響,預計Kamoa-Kakula銅礦的營運將於2026年恢復正常。此外,Kamoa-Kakula冶煉廠按計劃投產,將有助於降低運輸成本,並通過銷售硫酸(銅冶煉的副產品)提高利潤。因此,儘管近期受到干擾,Kamoa-Kakula銅礦的前景仍顯樂觀。 另一方面,匯豐研究指出,過去一個月,本港上市的銅業公司股價飆升逾20%(相較之下,恆生國企指數上漲2%,倫敦金屬交易所銅價上漲1%),認為強勁反彈主要歸因於:(1) 因擔憂銅關稅引發了對美國銅精礦的大量出口,倫敦金屬交易所及中國持續去庫存;(2) 智利銅礦商 Antofagasta對2025年下半年的每噸15美元處理費報價加劇了對銅精礦短缺的擔憂;(3) 隨著對中美貿易談判的樂觀情緒,衰退恐懼緩解。 匯豐研究表示,對於紫金而言,6月金價表現穩健,支撐了公司股價表現。紫金H股及A股是匯豐在銅業公司中的首選,因其黃金敞口、良好的產量增長前景及盈利增長(2025年料按年增長27%)。
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