《大行》匯豐:「閃購」市場目標受眾或較小 美團(03690.HK)將保持領先地位
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,內地「閃購」市場競爭日益激烈。應會推動整體即時零售市場增長,但增長可能主要由線下零售支撐,部分來自傳統電商。該行料內地整體零售需求不會顯著上升。
據商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院估計,中國即時零售市場將從去年約7,800億元人民幣增至2030年2萬億元人民幣,意味年複合增長率17%,到2030年佔總零售需求的4%,較去年翻倍。該行專有分析顯示,即時零售雖提供便利並滿足緊急需求,但價格和產品多樣性相對傳統電商競爭力較弱,且目標受眾或較小,其貢獻仍相對有限。
該行認為美團-W(03690.HK)將保持其領先地位,基於配送網絡及先行者優勢,阿里-W(09988.HK)應能提升市佔,因其可利用淘寶龐大用戶基礎進行交叉銷售,並依託餓了麼現有的即時零售配送網絡。京東-SW(09618.HK)在消費電子和快速消費品領域的優勢仍是其最強防線,但隨著其進入食品配送,擴展配送網絡以應對訂單激增可能需要時間。該行料阿里及京東電商銷售將互相蠶食。
該行維持對三間公司盈測不變。又認為更激烈競爭將擴大整體總可觸及市場,相關投資應會激增,但中期內仍保持理性。
下表列出匯豐環球研究對上述股份的投資評級及目標價:
股份│投資評級│目標價
美團-W(03690.HK)│買入│160元
京東-SW(09618.HK)│買入│187元
阿里-W(09988.HK)│買入│172元
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