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快手股價五日累計上漲超23%,券商一致看好可靈AI變現前景
格隆匯 06-10 09:37
近期,快手股價表現亮眼,近五個交易日(6月4日至6月10日)連續上漲,累計漲幅超23%,跑贏同期恆生指數表現。摩根大通、摩根士丹利、高盛及中信證券等機構密集發佈報告,聚焦快手廣告業務加速與可靈AI商業化突破,共同推動股價升溫。摩根大通在最新研報中將快手列爲中國數字娛樂行業首選股,目標價定爲71港元。該機構認爲,快手廣告收入將從二季度開始加速增長,預計同比增速由一季度的8%提升至四季度的19%,主要受益於內容消費、本地生活及貨架電商廣告的拉動。與此同時,快手自主研發的視頻生成模型可靈AI展現出強勁的商業化潛力。數據顯示,可靈3月份年化營收運行率(ARR)突破1億美元,4月和5月月度訂閱預訂額均超1億元人民幣,其中70%收入來自海外市場。值得注意的是,可靈的用戶結構呈現出鮮明的專業化特徵。摩根士丹利報告顯示,其70%的付費用戶爲廣告、影視等行業的專業人士,這一羣體對AI生成視頻的精準度和創意性要求較高,也意味着更高的付費意願和黏性。快手近期推出的可靈2.1版本通過優化定價策略進一步降低了使用門檻,分析師認爲這將加速其在中小企業市場的滲透。此外,多家券商一致認爲,可靈AI最新公佈的ARR數據遠超市場預期,高盛將可靈AI 2025年的收入預期上調至1.2億美元,摩根大通則將可靈AI全年收入預期由 4.5 億元上調至 7.5 億元。中信證券在研報中給出了更長期的展望。該機構預計,到2030年可靈年收入可能達到8.68億美元,年複合增長率44.7%。參照同行估值,可靈當前對應的保守估值增量約爲36-48億美元。此外,該行還認爲可靈未來的總可觸達市場(TAM)規模將超千億美元。“可靈定位爲AGI時代視頻創作的新型基礎設施,當前已經建立從生成到編輯的全鏈路創作工作流,有望成爲自媒體PUGC、廣告、短劇、影視劇等整個內容生產行業的工具。根據貝哲斯諮詢,2023年全球視頻製作市場規模9519億元,預計2029年達15743億元,我們認爲這將對應可靈可觸達的市場規模。”截至發稿,快手股價報63.4港元,爲四月以來的最高值。市場普遍預計,隨着二季度財報臨近,快手廣告與AI業務的協同效應將進一步顯現,爲估值修復提供更多動能。
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