瑞銀財管:中美會談或聚焦出口管制 籲不確定性下構建多元化AI敞口
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監(CIO)辦公室發表報告,指中美會談或聚焦出口管制,雖然細節尚不清楚,但該行預計美國的出口管制將有所放鬆,特別是最近圍繞晶片設計軟體的出口管制。對低端AI晶片的限制或放寬,但高端晶片可能會繼續受到嚴格控制。該行認為這些措施或有助於穩定中美貿易關係,但達成持久的解決方案仍具挑戰。
該行預計美國關稅將在年底接近15%,高於2025年初的2.5%。其中美國對中國有效關稅或穩定在30至40%區間。雖然貿易相關消息面或繼續帶來風險,但面對談判波動,市場可能不像以往那樣敏感。投資者可以考慮利用與貿易相關的波動性,逐步進入股票市場或平衡投資組合,並在美國和歐洲股票、歐洲中小盤股以及中國和印度的精選股票中尋找機會。
此外,該行建議投資者在不確定性下構建多元化AI敞口。在指數型增長之後,未來幾年AI計算支出可能會恢復正常。目前,AI計算佔全球AI資本支出的約60%,但該行預計,隨著其他領域(高頻寬記憶體、網路以及電力和液體冷卻等工業AI)受益於AI支出擴大,其相對份額將在未來幾年降至50%至55%。這意味著AI計算行業的營收應會以更正常化的速度增長,複合年增長率(CAGR)將從2023年至2025年間的120%回落到未來五年的20%。
長遠來看,該行仍然相信AI的發展趨勢,以及電力、資源和長壽經濟市場的變革性創新,應繼續成為股票表現的驅動因素。投資者可以考慮在多元化投資組合中構建足夠的AI敞口。由於圍繞關稅和晶片相關出口管制的不確定性仍然高企,投資者也可以利用結構化策略來應對短期波動,無論是使用具有到期本金贖回功能的工具,還是使用能產生收入的工具,同時等待以低於當前水準的價格買入股票。
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