研報掘金丨國盛證券:天山鋁業盈利能力持續增強,電解鋁產能預計增加至140萬噸
國盛證券日前研報指出,天山鋁業(002532.SZ)電解鋁產能由120萬噸擴產至140萬噸,其內生性持續增強。該項目技術成熟,社會、經濟效益良好,符合國家的產業政策和循環經濟要求,並已獲得相關政府部門的備案及批覆。公司作爲鋁行業龍頭企業,鋁全產業鏈一體化佈局凸顯強大的資源優勢和成本優勢,當前時點下產能兌現及降本增效爲競爭關鍵,公司有望通過海外拓展與上下遊深度賦能實現跨越式增長。謹慎假設2025-2027年鋁價假設爲2.0/2.05/2.1萬元/噸,對應氧化鋁價格爲0.32/0.29/0.28萬元/噸,預計2025-2027年公司實現歸母淨利48/61/72億元,對應PE 7.4/5.8/4.9倍。
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