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《大行》匯豐研究升石藥集團(01093.HK)評級至「買入」 上調目標價至9.5元
阿思達克 06-06 10:51
匯豐環球研究發表報告表示,將石藥集團(01093.HK)評級從「持有」上調至「買入」,目標價從4.7元上調至9.5元,對其估值由綜合估值方式改為按現金流折現率估算,潛在升幅21%。 該行指石藥今年首季度收入和淨利潤分別按年下降22%和8%,但產品銷售和利潤按季增長12%和60%,顯示出從集中採購(VBP)壓力下的逐步復甦。同時,該行對石藥集團的創新藥物更加樂觀,原因如下:1)石藥集團今年5月30日公告顯示,公司正在推進三項潛在的許可交易,表明業務拓展(BD)(範疇包括新產品的許可和購買、企業合作、兼併與收購等)進展比該行先前預期更強更快;2)SYS6010的穩健數據。 該行因此將石藥集團2025至2026年的淨利潤預測上調7至19%。該行現在預計石藥集團在2025至2027年將實現淨利潤年均複合增長率11%,這反映了更高的業務拓展收入以及該行對更好營運成本控制的預期。匯豐研究表示,雖然石藥集團年內至今已上漲約65%(相較恆生醫療保健指數累升37%),強調石藥集團2025年預估市盈率僅為15.5倍,遠低於國內同行的平均25.6倍,顯示出具估值具吸引力。結合該行對新藥上市以及業務拓展步伐加快、收入規模擴大的預期,匯豐研究認為石藥仍有進一步上行空間。 該行表示,石藥集團於5月30日宣布正在推進三項潛在的許可交易(包括SYS6010,即EGFR-ADC,以及另外兩項業務拓展產品),每項交易的總潛在付款可能超過50億美元。石藥集團預計其中一項交易將於2025年6月完成。該行認為,在2025年AACR和ASCO會議上,SYS6010顯示出強大的抗腫瘤療效,單藥治療晚期實體瘤的客觀緩解率(ORR)為31%(包括EGFR突變非小細胞肺癌群體的39%),其與小分子AMT抑制劑(SYH2051)聯合治療的潛力也得到展示,用於治療重度治療的結直腸癌(CRC)和胃癌(GC)。該行對石藥集團的創新藥物研發能力和商業前景更加樂觀。
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