《大行》星展升理想(2015.HK)目標價至136元 維持「買入」評級
星展發表研究報告指,理想-W(02015.HK)(LI.US)作為增程式電動車市場的主要參與者,在平均售價逾20萬元人民幣(下同)的細分市場中,擁有約15%的市場份額,正進入純電動車市場的新增長階段。理想汽車將於今年下半年推出Li i8和i6系列以擴展其車型組合。預計上述新純電動車定價在20萬至30萬元之間,旨在吸引目前由外國品牌主導的豪華汽油入門車型用戶。
該行表示,結合更新的理想L系列、新款MEGA HOME車型以及計劃推出的純電動車型,強大的產品線應能提升公司的出貨前景,儘管這一轉型可能對產品和銷售造成短期干擾。該行預測理想2024至2026財年間銷量每年增長22%,得益於更好的產品組合和規模效應,核心純利應實現超過20%的年均增長。
星展認為,理想汽車銷售反彈應對股價表現產生積極影響,特別是隨著新車型銷售加速。理想汽車股價在過去一個月上漲約20%,因為其新款MEGA HOME車型的初步反響相當令人鼓舞,5月12日至18日期間獲得1.1萬宗訂單。更重要的是,新車型搭載升級的AD Max 3.0系統和Nvidia Thor晶片,實現更先進的視覺-語言模型,應能提升產品競爭力。
該行將理想H股目標價由129港元上調至136港元,美股目標價由原先33美元升至35美元,基於主要車型週期升級下目標18倍滾動市盈率,維持「買入」評級。該行將目標市盈率從16倍上調至18倍,以反映2026財年更強的銷售和盈利前景,受到強勁車型週期的支撐。
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